The Australian Dollar leapt toward yesterday’s six-month peak against the US Dollar with China’s GDP much better than forecast. Chinese GDP printed at 2.9% year-on-year for the fourth quarter against expectations of 1.6% and 3.9% previously. Other Chinese data was released at the same time, with industrial production for the year to the end of...Read More

high against the US Dollar with USD/JPY trading as low as 127.46 on Friday. Inflationary data released today might provide a headache for the Bank of Japan at their monetary policy meeting this Wednesday. Year-on-year PPI to the end of December came in at 10.2%, above forecasts of 9.5% and 9.7% previously. The month-on-month figure...Read More

We are forming a nasty 2023 habit of closing out trading weeks on cliffhangers with tentative technical moves that fall critically short of fostering a genuine sense of conviction for directional traders. Given that we are coming out of the year-end holiday trading period, there is an abundance of technical levels carrying over from the...Read More

The US consumer price index (CPI) release this past session did not disappoint in its ability to generate volatility. However, its contribution to clear trend development was certainly uneven. On the one hand, the Dollar absorbed a clear hit that would extend the productivity of its bearish slide these past months. Alternatively, the supposed benefits...Read More

Gold Eyes New Highs Ahead of US CPI as Fed Preps for Hikes. Where to for XAU/USD?Gold made an eight-month high overnight despite the US Dollar gaining against most currencies. The US 10-year real yield dipped under 1.35% today as it continues to slide from the late December peak above 1.6%. The real yield is...Read More

Crude oil has found slightly firmer footing again today after a tumultuous start to 2023. Both the WTI and Brent futures contracts finished down around 8.5% last week. Energy prices in general have softened so far this year as temperatures in Europe and North America have been slightly warmer than anticipated. This is despite several...Read More

Seasonal norms won out this past week, which is incredible considering the threat of an impending recession grew considerably more tangible and market complacency has pushed to blatantly extreme levels. Looking back at the performance of the various benchmark risk assets that I monitor for a global perspective, it was clear that the bid wasn’t...Read More

VIX, VVIX, S&P 500, Dollar, EURUSD and NFPs Talking Points:The Market Perspective: S&P 500 Bullish Above 3,900; EURUSD Short Below 1.0600Expected volatility has slipped to extremely low levels according to the VIX and VVIX, which makes benchmarks like the S&P 500 a ‘sitting duck’Rate speculation around the Fed swelled this past session between the ADP...Read More

EURUSD, S&P 500, VIX and Liquidity Talking Points:The Market Perspective: EURUSD Bearish Below 1.0550; USDJPY Bearish Below 132After weeks of falling into an ever-constricting range, EURUSD finally forced a break on a Dollar-driven dive through 1.0580 The S&P 500 opened the new year with a -0.4 percent decline on an increase in volume and jump...Read More

My youngest wanted her own dog so we got a new puppy. Of course I am now the one who is taking care of the daily mess in the house. But unlike my younger days when I used to fly off the handle at cleaning up after every accident, this time I am much more...Read More