CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Crude oil remains relatively depressed this Thursday morning after a drop yesterday post-FOMC. The Federal Reserve decided to keep rates on hold; however, central bank guidance was rather hawkish considering the lead-up to the announcement was on the bearish side after US CPI and PPI data showed slowing inflationary pressures. The...Read More

UK GDP IS POSITIVE AT SURFACE LEVEL The British pound back in the picture once more this morning with UK GDP being the focal point for traders. Cable is trading relatively flat after yesterday’s positive close due to UK GDP releasing in line with expectations on most metrics (see economic calendar below). Highlights include: Monthly...Read More

The next two days will see both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) announce their latest monetary policy decisions with markets fully expecting the Fed to pause its fourteen-month hiking cycle, while the ECB will hike rates by a further 25 basis points. Both these outcomes are fully expected and priced...Read More

Global equity markets rose to a 13-month high on improving sentiment following the recent suspension of the US debt ceiling, the resilience of the global economy, and hopes that US interest rates are peaking. The MSCI All Country World index rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 index advanced 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 index was mostly...Read More

Crude oil continued its bumpy ride this week going into the Friday session after news reports of a potential US – Iran deal to free up supply for the global market overnight. The Israeli news outlet Hametz cited Israeli defense officials as saying that progress had been made toward a deal that will allow Iranian...Read More

A quiet US economic calendar overnight shifted much of the market focus to the Bank of Canada (Boca), who mirrored the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s decision this week with a surprise 25 basis-point increase. With that, it became the second central bank to reject broad expectations of a rate pause, serving as a reminder...Read More

Wall Street added modest gains to their recent rallies overnight, as the VIX pushed to yet another new low since February 2020 as a reflection of the prevailing risk-on environment. The eye-catching performance may lie in the Russell 2000 index, with buyers successfully defending its 1,800 level to deliver a stellar 2.8% gain overnight. In...Read More

The US Dollar recalibrated after data disappointed and may give the Federal Reserve room to skip a hike at their next gathering. Volatility has eased across markets. Will they spike again? US Dollar, US ISM, FOMC, Fed, VIX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bonds, FX, Volatility – Talking Points The US Dollar steadied through the Asian session...Read More

The Japanese yen’s slide appears to be losing steam as US Federal Reserve rate hike expectations take a ‘U’-turn after dovish remarks from central bank officials. The market is now pricing in a 79% chance of a pause at the June 13-14 FOMC meeting, compared to 35% a week ago, after several Fed officials including...Read More

The crude oil price went to a three-week low yesterday before staging a solid recovery with markets taking onboard some positive economic news and the US Dollar facing some headwinds. The market is now focusing on the OPEC+ meeting that kicks off this weekend. China’s better-than-expected Caixa PMI got the ball rolling, compensating for Wednesday’s...Read More